Identifying high-risk children for dental caries in school settings: A simple predictive model

Area of Science:

• Dental Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Pediatric Dentistry

Background:

• Untreated caries in permanent teeth is a global health issue.
• A simple, validated caries risk prediction tool is needed for early intervention in children.
• Targeted preventive programs can reduce the burden of dental caries.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a caries risk prediction model for 5-6-year-old Sri Lankan children.
• To identify key risk factors for developing permanent tooth caries in young children.
• To create a practical tool for identifying children requiring preventive dental care.

Main Methods:

• Two case-control studies were conducted for model development and validation.
• Data collected via dental records and parental questionnaires.
• Logistic regression identified risk predictors; ROC curves determined the cut-off point.

Main Results:

• Four significant risk predictors identified: posterior decayed teeth, infrequent brushing, non-use of fluoridated toothpaste, and high intake of fermentable carbohydrate snacks.
• A 10-point caries risk score was developed.
• External validation yielded a sensitivity of 31% and specificity of 87% at a cut-off of 2.5.

Conclusions:

• The developed caries risk prediction model can effectively identify high-risk children.
• The tool is particularly useful in regions with a high prevalence of dental caries.
• This low-cost tool supports targeted preventive strategies for child dental health.