The clinical relevance of subgroups of autistic adults: Stability and predictive value

Autism in adulthood is characterized by heterogeneity, complicating the provision of tailored support. In previous work, we aimed to capture this heterogeneity by determining subgroups of autistic adults that differed in clinical outcomes: cognitive failures, psychological difficulties, and quality of life (QoL). Two subgroups were identified: a "Feelings of Low Grip" subgroup characterized by experiencing a lower sense of mastery and a higher susceptibility to difficulties in daily life, and a "Feelings of High Grip" subgroup characterized by a higher sense of mastery and lower susceptibility to difficulties in daily life. The current pre-registered study involves a longitudinal extension to determine (a) stability and (b) predictive value of the previously identified two subgroups. Subgroups were identified using community detection based on 14 self-report measures related to demographic, psychological, and lifestyle characteristics in two samples (aged 31-86 years) that were analyzed separately: Sample 1 (N_Autism = 80) measured 5 years after baseline and Sample 2 (N_Autism = 241, N_Comparison = 211) measured 2 years after baseline. The stability over time was assessed based on (a) the number of subgroups, (b) subgroup profiles, and (c) subgroup membership. Predictive validity was assessed for cognitive failures, psychological difficulties, and QoL. Results indicated that autistic and non-autistic adults formed distinct subgroups. Within both autism samples, the two previously identified autism subgroups were replicated at follow-up. Subgroup profiles were similar for >50% of the variables at two-year follow-up, and 21% at five-year follow-up. Moreover, ≥76% remained in the same subgroup at two-year follow-up, and ≥ 57% after 5 years. Subgroup membership was predictive of external clinical outcomes up to 5 years. Thus, this study demonstrated the stability and predictive value of the autism subgroups, especially for the two-year follow-up. A further focus on their clinical utility might increase the aptness of support, and may provide more insight into the aging process when being autistic.