Heatwave 1987: the Piraeus versus Athens case

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Climate Change Science
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Heatwaves are key indicators of climate change impacts.
• Mortality during heatwaves varies significantly between populations.
• Local data and historical context are crucial for accurate heatwave impact assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the differential mortality effects of the 1987 heatwave in Athens and Piraeus.
• To identify the dominant ambient parameters influencing heatwave-related mortality in each city.

Main Methods:

• Collected mortality data from Piraeus and Athens for 1987.
• Extracted ambient environmental characteristics for both locations.
• Calculated odds ratios and relative risk, and employed a neural network to determine dominant atmospheric factors.

Main Results:

• The 1987 heatwave caused seven times more deaths in Athens than in Piraeus.
• Nitric oxide (NO) concentration was the dominant factor for Athenian mortality (probability 0.999).
• Ozone concentration was the primary factor for Piraeus mortality (probability 0.993).

Conclusions:

• Heatwave mortality risk is influenced by lifestyle, population sensitivity, and public health policies.
• Ozone was the main moderator in Piraeus, while NO was dominant in Athens, regardless of the year.
• Understanding local environmental factors is essential for mitigating heatwave health impacts.