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Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate.

Zélie Stalhandske1,2, Carmen B Steinmann3,4, Simona Meiler3,4

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This study introduces a global framework for assessing multi-hazard risks, considering climate change impacts on floods and cyclones. It reveals that accounting for shared drivers and recovery significantly changes risk estimations for people and assets.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Environmental risk assessment
  • Geosciences

Background:

  • Natural hazards present substantial risks globally, necessitating accurate quantification for adaptation and insurance.
  • Conventional risk assessments often overlook multi-hazard interactions, leading to potential under or overestimations of actual risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and present a globally consistent framework for modeling multi-hazard risks.
  • To incorporate hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and recovery assumptions into a unified risk assessment.
  • To illustrate the framework's application using river floods and tropical cyclones under a changing climate.

Main Methods:

  • Combined single hazard models driven by identical climate model realizations for physical consistency.
  • Developed a framework considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and recovery.
  • Implemented the framework within the open-source CLIMADA platform.

Main Results:

  • Incorporating common physical drivers and recovery processes significantly alters multi-hazard risk assessments.
  • The framework successfully models combined impacts of river floods and tropical cyclones on people and assets globally.
  • Demonstrated the framework's scalability to more than two hazards and integration of diverse recovery scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework offers a more comprehensive approach to multi-hazard risk management compared to traditional methods.
  • This approach provides a consistent global perspective on climate-related risks.
  • The CLIMADA platform enables flexible application to various hazards and exposures for improved risk assessment.