Global coastal wind hazard maps from the CHAZ tropical cyclone model

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Meteorology
• Disaster Risk Assessment

Background:

• Synthetic tropical cyclone (TC) models are crucial for hazard and risk assessment, especially given limited observational data and climate change impacts.
• Raw TC track data requires further processing for effective use in impact assessments beyond traditional climate and meteorological research.

Purpose of the Study:

• To generate global coastal wind risk maps using the Columbia TC hazard model (CHAZ).
• To assess present-day and future tropical cyclone wind risk under various climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Columbia TC hazard model (CHAZ) to process synthetic TC track data.
• Generated hazard maps depicting TC intensity exceedance probabilities and return periods.
• Incorporated climate scenario-driven data for historical, mid-century, and end-of-century periods, alongside a reanalysis-based reference dataset.

Main Results:

• Presented global coastal wind risk maps for present-day and future climate conditions.
• Provided data for specific timeframes: 1995-2014 (historical), 2041-2060 (mid-century), and 2081-2100 (end-of-century).
• Included a reference dataset from 1981-2019 downscaled from observation-based reanalysis.

Conclusions:

• The generated hazard maps offer accessible formats for understanding TC intensity and frequency.
• These maps provide valuable insights for policymakers, planners, and researchers involved in disaster preparedness.
• The study highlights the utility of synthetic TC models in enhancing climate change impact assessments for coastal regions.