Modeling Invasive Aspergillosis Risk for the Application of Prophylaxis Strategies

The epidemiology of invasive aspergillosis (IA) is evolving. To define the patient groups who will most likely benefit from primary or secondary Aspergillus prophylaxis, particularly those whose medical conditions and IA risk change over time, it is helpful to depict patient populations and their risk periods in a temporal visual model. The Sankey approach provides a dynamic figure to understand the risk of IA for various patient populations. While the figure depicted within this article is static, an internet-based version could provide pop-up highlights of any given flow's origin and destination nodes. A future version could highlight links to publications that support the color-coded incidence rates or other actionable items, such as bundles of applicable pharmacologic or non-pharmacologic interventions. The figure, as part of the upcoming Infectious Diseases Society of America's aspergillosis clinical practice guidelines, can guide decision-making in clinical settings.