Clustering regions with dynamic time warping to model obesity prevalence disparities in the United States

Current methods for clustering adult obesity prevalence by state focus on creating a single map of obesity prevalence for a given year in the United States. Comparing these maps for different years may limit our understanding of the progression of state and regional obesity prevalence over time for the purpose of developing targeted regional health policies. In this application note, we adopt the non-parametric Dynamic Time Warping method for clustering longitudinal time series of obesity prevalence by state. This method captures the lead and lag relationship between the time series as part of the temporal alignment, allowing us to produce a single map that captures the regional and temporal clusters of obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2019 in the United States. We identify six regions of obesity prevalence in the United States and forecast future estimates of obesity prevalence based on ARIMA models.