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Compounding endowment effects when trading draft picks in the Australian Football League.

Jemuel Chandrakumaran1, Paul Larkin1,2, Sam McIntosh1,3

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Plos One
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The endowment effect causes teams to overvalue draft picks they own. Trading a pick amplifies this bias, making players drafted with traded picks stay longer on teams, irrespective of performance.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Sports Analytics
  • Organizational Psychology

Background:

  • The endowment effect describes a bias where owners value possessions more than non-owners.
  • In sports, this effect may influence player retention, with early draft picks often kept regardless of utility.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if the endowment effect intensifies when draft picks are traded.
  • To quantify the impact of pick trades on player retention in the Australian Football League (AFL).

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a proportional hazard model to analyze career longevity.
  • Examined draftees from the AFL between 2003 and 2016.
  • Incorporated draft pick trade data into the model.

Main Results:

  • Each subsequent trade of a draft pick marginally reduced player exit by a log normal rate of 0.269.
  • This effect persisted for players with their original drafting team.
  • The compounding premium and shifting value reference points were identified as contributing factors.

Conclusions:

  • Draft pick trading amplifies the endowment effect in player retention.
  • Teams exhibit a stronger bias towards keeping players acquired through more heavily traded picks.
  • Understanding this bias is crucial for optimal team management and player evaluation.