Prediction model and assessment of malnutrition in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) combined with malnutrition results in decreased exercise capacity and a worse quality of life. We aimed to develop an observational case-control study to explore the effective and convenient method to identify potential individuals is lacking. This study included data from 251 patients with COPD and 85 participants in the control group. Parameters and body composition were compared between groups, and among patients with varied severity. The LASSO approach was employed to select the features for fitting a logistic model to predict the risk of malnutrition in patients with stable COPD. Patients with COPD exhibited significantly lower 6-min walk distance (6MWD), handgrip strength, fat-free mass index (FFMI), skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and protein. The significant predictors identified following LASSO selection included 6MWD, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), GOLD grades, the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score, and the prevalence of acute exacerbations. The risk score model yielded good accuracy (C-index, 0.866 [95% CI 0.824-0.909]) and calibration (Brier score = 0.150). After internal validation, the adjusted C-index and Brier score were 0.849, and 0.165, respectively. This model may provide primary physicians with a simple scoring system to identify malnourished patients with COPD and develop appropriate rehabilitation interventions.