Factors influencing fire accidents in urban complexes: a combined DEMATEL and ISM study

Fire outbreaks in urban complexes are a major safety concern worldwide. Therefore, this study aims to examine the critical factors that influence fire accidents and their interaction mechanisms in urban settings. A (software factors, hardware factors, environmental factors, parties and other factors, SHEL) model is developed to identify 15 risk factors in four categories affecting fire incidents in urban complexes. The Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method (DEMATEL) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) are employed to identify the key factors and their interrelationships, using the evaluation metrics of degree of influence, affected degree, centrality, and hierarchical structure. The results show that lack of safety management rules and regulations (S13), poor security awareness (S1), and uncorrected hidden dangers (S11) are the top three critical factors. Based on the hierarchical structure and centrality values, eight critical paths with the highest impact on fires are identified; for instance, Path 39 (comprising, lack of safety management rules and regulations (S13) → lack of fire training and drills (S12) → insufficient security knowledge (S2) → poor security awareness (S1) → poor sense of security responsibility (S3) → uncorrected hidden danger (S11) → inadequate maintenance of fire-fighting facilities (S14) → Accident), which, among all disaster impact paths, has the highest centrality value of 21.8796 (out of a total of 15 factors and total centrality value of 42.9226; Path 39 involves seven factors, but its centrality value accounts for 50.97% of the total). Finally, based on the factor analysis results, suggestions for fire control measures are provided to prevent fire accidents and ensure the safety of people and property.