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An optimized NARX-based model for predicting thermal dynamics and heatwaves in rivers.

Senlin Zhu1, Fabio Di Nunno2, Jiang Sun1

  • 1College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China.

The Science of the Total Environment
|March 27, 2024
PubMed
Summary

This study enhances river heatwave prediction using an optimized Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) model. The improved model accurately forecasts river water temperature and heatwave characteristics, crucial for understanding climate change impacts.

Keywords:
Climate changeHeatwavesNARXRiversThermal dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Hydrology
  • Climate Change Research

Background:

  • River thermal dynamics are vital for aquatic health, increasingly impacted by climate change-induced heatwaves.
  • Existing models lack precision in characterizing river heatwave duration and intensity.
  • There is a critical need for advanced modeling techniques to predict river thermal events.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To augment the Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) model for improved river heatwave prediction.
  • To enhance the characterization of river water temperature (RWT) dynamics and heatwave events.
  • To compare the performance of the optimized NARX model against the established air2stream model.

Main Methods:

  • Developed an optimized NARX-based model incorporating Bayesian Optimization (BO) and Bayesian Regularization (BR) algorithms.
  • Utilized a long-term dataset (1991-2021) from 18 rivers in the Vistula River Basin.
  • Compared the BO-NARX-BR model's performance with the air2stream model for RWT and heatwave modeling.

Main Results:

  • The BO-NARX-BR model demonstrated superior performance in calibration, validation, and heatwave prediction compared to air2stream.
  • The study identified increasing frequency and intensity of river heatwaves in the Vistula River Basin.
  • The NARX-based model proved more proficient in characterizing river heatwaves.

Conclusions:

  • The optimized NARX-based model offers enhanced predictive capabilities for river thermal dynamics and heatwaves.
  • Findings highlight the escalating threat of river heatwaves in the Vistula River Basin due to climate change.
  • This research provides a foundational study for river heatwave analysis in Poland and globally.