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Assessing the Association between Biomarkers and COVID-19 Mortality Using the Joint Modelling Approach

Matteo Di Maso1, Serena Delbue2, Maurizio Sampietro3

  • 1Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Branch of Medical Statistics, Biometry and Epidemiology "G.A. Maccacaro", Università degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy.

Life (Basel, Switzerland)
|March 28, 2024
PubMed

Insights

Biomarkers like neutrophils, C-reactive protein, glucose, and LDH are linked to COVID-19 mortality. Monitoring these markers and considering patient age and sex can help assess disease severity and guide treatment.

Area of Science:

  • Clinical Medicine
  • Biostatistics
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • COVID-19 poses a significant global health threat, with mortality influenced by various factors.
  • Identifying reliable predictors of COVID-19 mortality is crucial for effective patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the association between specific biomarkers and COVID-19 mortality.
  • To assess the predictive value of neutrophils, lymphocytes, ferritin, C-reactive protein, glucose, and LDH in COVID-19 outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized joint models (JMs) with a Bayesian approach to analyze data from 403 COVID-19 patients.
  • Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% credible intervals (CIs) from univariable and multivariable models.
  • Included demographic factors (sex, age) and a panel of biomarkers in the analysis.

Main Results:

  • Neutrophils, C-reactive protein, glucose, and LDH were significantly associated with increased COVID-19 mortality in multivariable analysis.
  • Lymphocytes and ferritin showed no significant association with mortality in the multivariable model.
  • Male sex and older age (≥60 years) were also associated with higher mortality risk.

Conclusions:

  • Biomarkers, particularly neutrophils, CRP, glucose, and LDH, are valuable in assessing COVID-19 severity and mortality risk.
  • Integrating biomarker trends with demographic data can enhance patient stratification and inform clinical care pathways.
  • These findings underscore the importance of routine biomarker monitoring in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Keywords:
COVID-19 mortalitybiomarkersjoint modelling approachsurvival analysistime-varying covariates

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