Climate control on the channel morphodynamics of the Sittaung River, Myanmar

The spatio-temporal development of a meandering river is controlled by its channel morphodynamics. In regions of rapid channel evolution, understanding the driving factors of meander migration is crucial in forecasting the rate and extent of morphological change. Sediment supply and fluvial discharge are the primary influences on migration rate, however climate oscillations are also integral in indirectly regulating migration rate through their control of regional precipitation, as well as the monsoon season of sub-tropical Asia. Despite this, an in-depth investigation into the impact of climate oscillations on meander bend migration remains undocumented. This study presents a satellite-based analysis of multi-decadal climatic forcing on the migration rate of the Sittaung River in Myanmar, through interpretation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mode of ENSO exerts significant climatic control on the migration rate of the meandering channels of the Sittaung River, with low-to-average migration rates recorded during dry El Niño events and peak migration rates observed during wet La Niña events. However, this climatic signal may have been obscured by certain local environmental conditions. In cases where meanders faced geological basement, the basement rock inhibited their migration through extension, forcing more rapid migration by way of seaward translation. Consequently, these translating meanders developed to be more elongate, with lower curvatures. Meanders downstream of the approximate tidal limit were less downstream skewed, indicative of tidal modulation, potentially obscuring the impact of fluvially driven climate forcing. Additionally, downstream of a major confluence, the input of sediment and fluvial discharge may have been regulated by upstream anthropogenic activities such as mining and dam construction, leading to greater variability in migration rate downstream of this confluence and further obfuscation of the climate signal.