Evolution of rates, patterns, and driving forces of green eco-spaces in a subtropical hilly region

Monitoring ecological resource change in mountainous and hilly areas (MHAs) is vital for theoretical and practical advancements of ecological resource utilization and management in complex ecosystems. The factors driving structural and functional changes in green eco-spaces (GES) in these areas are complex and uncertain, with notable spatial scale effects. However, analyzing the multi-scale driving mechanisms of ecological and socioeconomic factors at a fine spatiotemporal scale presents significant challenges. To address these challenges, we analyzed dynamic changes in GES and eco-socio-economic development in Shanghang County, a typical mountainous region in southern China. We used multiple linear regression and multi-scale geographically weighted regression model to identify key factors driving GES changes and their multi-scale effects at both global and local levels. Over the past two decades, the GES area in the study area has exhibited a consistent pattern of decline, characterized by phases of gradual decline (2000-2005), sharp decline (2005-2009), slow decline (2009-2019). Key global factors driving GES changes included elevation (ELE), slope (SLOPE), population density (PD), distance to settlements (SETTLE), and distance to administrative centers (ADMIN). These factors exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity and multi-scale effects on GES changes. Specifically, SETTLE, PD, SLOPE, and ELE consistently drove GES changes at the local level, while ADMIN only showed significant localized effects during 2005-2009. The synergy between SETTLE and SLOPE had a considerable impact on GES changes, increasing over time, whereas ELE and PD demonstrated a consistent trade-off effect. These findings provide detailed spatiotemporal insights into the driving mechanisms of natural ecological resources, offering crucial guidance for environmental management, land source management, regional economic development, and biodiversity conservation in Shanghang and analogous subtropical hilly regions worldwide.