Diagnostic and prognostic nomograms for laryngeal carcinoma patients with lung metastasis: a SEER-based study

To establish two nomograms to quantify the risk of lung metastasis (LM) in laryngeal carcinoma (LC) and predict the overall survival of LC patients with LM.

Totally 9515 LC patients diagnosed histologically from 2000 to 2019 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The independent diagnostic factors for LM in LC patients and prognostic factors for LC patients with LM were identified by logistic and Cox regression analysis, respectively. Nomograms were established based on regression coefficients and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

Patients with supraglottis, higher pathological grade, higher N stage, and distant metastasis (bone, brain, or liver) were more likely to have LM (P < 0.05). Chemotherapy, surgery and radiotherapy were independent factors of the overall survival of LC patients with LM (P < 0.05). The area under curve of diagnostic nomogram were 0.834 and 0.816 in the training and validation cohort respectively. For the prognostic nomogram, the area under curves of 1-, 2-, and 3-years were 0.735, 0.734, and 0.709 in the training cohort and 0.705, 0.803, and 0.809 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis indicated good performance of the nomograms.

Distant metastasis (bone, brain, or liver) and N stage should be considered for prediction of LM in LC patients. Chemotherapy is the most significant influencing prognostic factor improving the survival of LC patients with LM. Two nomograms may benefit for providing better precautionary measures and treatment decision.