COVID-19 and Gun Violence: Keeping Unknown Shocks and Volatility in Perspective

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Criminology
• Urban Studies

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to public safety.
• Understanding the pandemic's impact on gun violence is crucial for policy development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the varying effects of the pandemic on gun violence.
• To analyze the influence of social distancing, fatality, and location on gun violence trends.
• To examine the impact of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests and depolicing on gun violence.

Main Methods:

• Interrupted time series analyses were employed using weekly crime data from New York City (2016-2020).
• Box-Cox power transformation and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) techniques were utilized to address model non-normality and heteroscedasticity.
• Geographic analysis focused on specific boroughs: The Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens, compared to Staten Island.

Main Results:

• Significant increases in fatal and non-fatal shootings were observed during periods of relaxed social distancing.
• The Black Lives Matter protests and depolicing showed a significant impact on non-fatal shootings.
• Gun violence saw greater increases in The Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens compared to Staten Island.
• Evidence suggests increased volatility in gun violence during the pandemic, leading to heightened public safety concerns.

Conclusions:

• The pandemic significantly influenced gun violence patterns in New York City.
• Policy interventions should consider the differential impact of social distancing measures and external events.
• Addressing the increased volatility of gun violence is essential for restoring public safety and reducing fear.