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The dynamic interaction between COVID-19 and shipping freight rates: a quantile on quantile analysis
Khalid Khan1, Chi Wei Su2, Adnan Khurshid3
1School of Finance, Qilu University of Technology, Jinan, China.
European Transport Research Review
|April 16, 2024
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted shipping freight costs, affecting demand and vessel availability. While increasing the Baltic Dry Index long-term, it negatively affected tanker indices in the short to medium run.
Area of Science:
- Maritime Economics
- Global Logistics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, emerging in 2019, caused unprecedented global disruption.
- Shipping freights are critical indicators of global trade and economic activity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on shipping freight costs.
- To analyze the relationship between COVID-19 spread and key shipping indices.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the wavelet quantile on the quantile approach.
- Analyzed the effects across different quantiles and time horizons (short, medium, long run).
Main Results:
- COVID-19 negatively affected shipping freight costs due to reduced demand and vessel unavailability.
- The Baltic Dry Index showed a positive long-term impact in high quantiles.
- Baltic Dry Tanker and Baltic Clean Tanker Indices experienced negative impacts in medium to high quantiles (short/medium run).
- A positive long-term impact on the Baltic Clean Tanker Index was observed in high quantiles.
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 pandemic and shipping freights are closely related, with a more causal effect observed in the short term.
- The shipping industry needs to monitor freight rate dynamics and adapt regulations to abrupt changes caused by such global events.
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