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Competitors strategically use unpredictable behavior, like varying hostility and friendliness, to gain an advantage. This unpredictability in conflict, driven by a desire to win, incurs significant welfare costs for all involved.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Psychology
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Competitors may benefit from unpredictable strategies, but empirical evidence on its application and impact is limited.
  • Understanding how and why competitors employ unpredictability in conflict is crucial for analyzing competitive dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the empirical reality of unpredictable competitive strategies.
  • To explore the drivers and consequences of unpredictability in attacker-defender contests.
  • To determine the motivational basis and welfare implications of unpredictable conflict behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Reanalysis of nine experiments (N=650) examining variability in proactive attacks and reactive defense.
  • Experimental study (N=200) assessing the impact of variability on predictability.
  • Hormonal analysis (testosterone) and physiological measures (sympathetic arousal) in studies with N=27 and N=106.

Main Results:

  • Significant cross-trial variability observed, particularly in proactive attacks.
  • Increased variability enhances unpredictability for both attackers and defenders, especially when driven by occasional extreme investments.
  • Precontest testosterone levels correlate with attack variability, leading to increased defender arousal and variability.

Conclusions:

  • Unpredictability in conflict is not solely for wealth maximization but stems from a "win at all costs" mentality.
  • This drive for unpredictability results in substantial welfare costs for both the winner and the loser.
  • The findings highlight the complex interplay of strategy, motivation, and physiological factors in competitive interactions.