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A system dynamics-based model for the evolution of environmental group events.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Systems Theory
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Environmental problems can trigger mass events.
  • Understanding the evolution of these events is crucial for mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an environmental mass event evolution model.
  • To explore the evolution laws of mass events stemming from environmental issues.
  • To identify conditions for system stabilization.

Main Methods:

  • System dynamics theory for modeling.
  • Mixed-strategy evolutionary game principle.
  • Dynamic punishment measures.
  • Simulation analysis using Anylogic software.

Main Results:

  • Traditional asymmetric mixed-strategy game models lack stable evolutionary equilibrium.
  • Adjusting the game payoff matrix and incorporating dynamic punishment strategies lead to stable evolutionary equilibrium.
  • The system demonstrates a tendency towards stabilization under these adjusted conditions.

Conclusions:

  • Dynamic punishment strategies are key to stabilizing the evolution of environmental mass events.
  • The study provides methodological and theoretical support for analyzing environmental mass event evolution.
  • Findings offer practical insights for managing and preventing environmental crises.