Caterpillar movement mediates spatially local interactions and determines the relationship between population density...

While interactions in nature are inherently local, ecological models often assume homogeneity across space, allowing for generalization across systems and greater mathematical tractability. Density-dependent disease models are a prominent example of models that assume homogeneous interactions, leading to the prediction that disease transmission will scale linearly with population density. In this study, we examined how the scale of larval butterfly movement interacts with the resource landscape to influence the relationship between larval contact and population density in the Baltimore checkerspot (Euphydryas phaeton). Our study was inspired by the recent discovery of a viral pathogen that is transmitted horizontally among Baltimore checkerspot larvae.

We used multi-year larvae location data across six Baltimore checkerspot populations in the eastern U.S. to test whether larval nests are spatially clustered. We then integrated these spatial data with larval movement data in different resource contexts to investigate whether heterogeneity in spatially local interactions alters the assumed linear relationship between larval nest density and contact. We used Correlated Random Walk (CRW) models and field observations of larval movement behavior to construct Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of larval dispersal, and calculated the overlap in these PDFs to estimate conspecific contact within each population.

We found that all populations exhibited significant spatial clustering in their habitat use. Subsequent larval movement rates were influenced by encounters with host plants and larval age, and under many movement scenarios, the scale of predicted larval movement was not sufficient to allow for the "homogeneous mixing" assumed in density dependent disease models. Therefore, relationships between population density and larval contact were typically non-linear. We also found that observed use of available habitat patches led to significantly greater contact than would occur if habitat use were spatially random.

These findings strongly suggest that incorporating larval movement and spatial variation in larval interactions is critical to modeling disease outcomes in E. phaeton. Epidemiological models that assume a linear relationship between population density and larval contact have the potential to underestimate transmission rates, especially in small populations that are already vulnerable to extinction.