Multidecadal mangrove forest change in Macajalar Bay, Northern Mindanao, Philippines (1950-2020) using remote sensing...

The mangrove forest in Macajalar Bay is regarded as an important coastal ecosystem since it provides numerous ecosystem services. Despite their importance, the clearing of mangroves has been rampant and has reached critical rates. Addressing this problem and further advancing its conservation require accurate mangrove mapping. However, current spatial information related to mangroves is sparse and insufficient to understand the historical change dynamics. In this study, the synergy of 1950 vegetation maps and Landsat images was explored to provide multidecadal monitoring of mangrove forest change dynamics in Macajalar Bay, Philippines. Vegetation maps containing the 1950 mangrove extent and Landsat images were used as input data to monitor the rates of loss over 70 years. In 2020, the mangrove forest cover was estimated to be 201.73 ha, equivalent to only 61.99% of the 325.43 ha that was estimated in 1950. Between 1950 and 2020, net mangrove loss in Macajalar Bay totaled 324.29 ha. The highest clearing rates occurred between 1950 and 1990 when it recorded a total of 258.51 ha, averaging 6.46 ha/year. The original mangrove forest that existed in 1950 only represents 8.56% of the 2020 extent, suggesting that much of the old-growth mangrove had been cleared before 2000 and the existing mangrove forest is mainly composed of secondary mangrove forest stands. Across Macajalar Bay, intensified clearing that happened between 1950 and 1990 has been driven by large-scale aquaculture developments. Mangrove gains on the other hand were evident and have increased the total extent by 79.84 ha since 2000 as a result of several afforestation programs. However, approximately half of these gains that were observed since 2010 exhibited low canopy cover. As of writing, approximately 85% of the 2020 mangrove forest stands fall outside the 1950 original mangrove extent. Examining the viability of the original mangrove forest for mangrove reforestation together with promoting site-species matching, and biophysical assessment are necessary undertakings to advance current mangrove conservation initiatives in Macajalar Bay.