Does the reliability of computational models truly improve with hierarchical modeling? Some recommendations and...

Computational modeling of behavior is increasingly being adopted as a standard methodology in psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and computational psychiatry. This approach involves estimating parameters in a computational (or cognitive) model that represents the computational processes of the underlying behavior. In this approach, the reliability of the parameter estimates is an important issue. The use of hierarchical (Bayesian) approaches, which place a prior on each model parameter of the individual participants, is thought to improve the reliability of the parameters. However, the characteristics of reliability in parameter estimates, especially when individual-level priors are assumed, as in hierarchical models, have not yet been fully discussed. Furthermore, the suitability of different reliability measures for assessing parameter reliability is not thoroughly understood. In this study, we conduct a systematic examination of these issues through theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, focusing specifically on reinforcement learning models. We note that the heterogeneity in the estimation precision of individual parameters, particularly with priors, can skew reliability measures toward individuals with higher precision. We further note that there are two factors that reduce reliability, namely estimation error and intersession variation in the true parameters, and we discuss how to evaluate these factors separately. Based on the considerations of this study, we present several recommendations and cautions for assessing the reliability of the model parameters.