Nomogram Predicts Prognostic Factors for Head and Neck Cutaneous Melanoma: A Population-Based Analysis

The head and neck cutaneous melanoma (HNCM) accounts for 20% of newly diagnosed melanoma. Research on prognostic models for their survival yet remains largely unexplored. This study employed a nomogram approach to develop and validate a predictive model for both overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with HNCM.

This study analyzed the HNCM patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. To identify independent prognostic factors for HNCM, we integrated results from univariate Cox regression analysis, random survival forests, and LASSO regression with cross-validation. A nomogram was designed and validated based on the identified characteristics to predict the 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS and DSS of patients with HNCM.

Age, Stage, Ulceration, Thickness, Chemotherapy, lymph node metastasis, and Radiation were identified as independent prognostic factors. The nomogram achieved a satisfactory performance with C-indices of 0.824(DSS) and 0.757(OS) in the training cohort and 0.827(DSS) and 0.749(OS) in the validation cohort, respectively. The area under the curves for the OS at 3, 5, and 8 years were 0.789, 0.788, and 0.794 for the training cohort, and 0.778, 0.776, and 0.795 for the validation cohort, respectively. For DSS, the area under the curves at 3, 5, and 8 years were 0.859, 0.842, and 0.828 in the training cohort, and 0.864, 0.844, and 0.834 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve showed that there was a strong correlation between the observed outcomes and the predicted survival probability.

This study established and validated predictive nomograms for HNCM patients with robust predictive performance.