Navigating an unpredictable environment: the moderating role of perceived environmental unpredictability in the...

The global issue of ecological resource scarcity, worsened by climate change, necessitates effective methods to promote resource conservation. One commonly used approach is presenting ecological resource scarcity information. However, the effectiveness of this method remains uncertain, particularly in an unpredictable world. This research aims to examine the role of perceived environmental unpredictability in moderating the impact of ecological resource scarcity information on pro-environmental behavior (PEB).

We conducted three studies to test our hypothesis on moderation. Study 1 (N = 256) measured perceived general environmental unpredictability, perceived resource scarcity and daily PEB frequencies in a cross-sectional survey. Study 2 (N = 107) took it a step further by manipulating resource scarcity. Importantly, to increase ecological validity, Study 3 (N = 135) manipulated the information on both ecological resource scarcity and nature-related environmental unpredictability, and measured real water and paper consumption using a newly developed washing-hands paradigm.

In Study 1, we discovered that perceived resource scarcity positively predicted PEB, but only when individuals perceive the environment as less unpredictable (interaction effect: 95% CI = [-0.09, -0.01], ΔR² = 0.018). Furthermore, by manipulating scarcity information, Study 2 revealed that only for individuals with lower levels of environmental unpredictability presenting ecological resource scarcity information could decrease forest resource consumption intention (interaction effect: 95%CI = [-0.025, -0.031], ΔR² = .04). Moreover, Study 3 found that the negative effect of water resource scarcity information on actual water and (interaction effect: 95%CI = [3.037, 22.097], η_p² = .050) paper saving behaviors (interaction effect: 95%CI = [0.021, 0.275], η_p² = .040), as well as hypothetical forest resource consumption (interaction effect: 95%CI = [-0.053, 0.849], η_p² = .023) emerged only for people who receiving weaker environmental unpredictability information.

Across three studies, we provide evidence to support the moderation hypothesis that environmental unpredictability weakens the positive effect of ecological resource scarcity information on PEB, offering important theoretical and practical implications on the optimal use of resource scarcity to enhance PEB.