Case Ascertainment of Measles during a Large Outbreak-Laboratory Compared to Epidemiological Confirmation

Measles is a highly contagious viral disease, and hence, sufficient herd immunity is obligatory to prevent infection transmission. Measles is still a cause of considerable disease burden globally, mainly in children. During a national measles outbreak in Israel in 2018-2019, the peak incidence rates occurred in the Jerusalem district. Most measles cases in the Jerusalem district (75.5%, 1702) were observed in children younger than 15 years of age, 49.2% (1109) were in children under 5 years of age, and 18.9% (425) were in infants under 1 year of age. The routine measles vaccination schedule includes two doses at 1 and 6 years of age. Most cases (1828, 81.1%) were unvaccinated (zero measles vaccine doses). These cases comprised the 425 affected infants under 1 year of age, who were ineligible for vaccination, along with the 1403 children over 1 year of age, who were otherwise unvaccinated. This study aimed to describe the epidemiologic and laboratory features of this measles outbreak, and to investigate case ascertainment (laboratory confirmed compared to epidemiologically confirmed cases). The study population included 2254 measles cases notified during the period spanning June 2018 to May 2019 in the Jerusalem district (incidence rate 176 per 10,000 population). Of the 2254 cases, 716 (31.8%) were laboratory confirmed, and 1538 (68.2%) were confirmed as epidemiologically linked. Most laboratory confirmed cases (420, 58.7%) underwent real-time PCR tests. Serological tests (measles IgM and IgG) were used in 189 (26.4%) cases, and a combination of RT-PCR and serology was used in 107 (14.9%) cases. In a multivariate model analysis, the variables significantly associated (after adjustment) with higher odds for laboratory confirmation included month of disease onset (late), additional measles cases in the household (single case), place of medical treatment (hospital; either emergency department, or hospitalization) and vaccination status (at least one prior vaccine dose). The measles outbreak described demonstrates the urgency of addressing vaccination gaps with appropriate outbreak prevention programs. The road to measles elimination needs to be paved with robust public health infrastructure, excellent field epidemiology for outbreak surveillance, investigation, and control, and laboratory proficiency.