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Global stability analysis and modelling onchocerciasis transmission dynamics with control measures
Musah Konlan1, Baaba Abassawah Danquah1, Eric Okyere1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Ghana.
Infection Ecology & Epidemiology
|May 13, 2024
Summary
Mathematical modeling reveals that controlling infected immigrants is crucial for eradicating onchocerciasis (river blindness). Monitoring imported cases and integrating One Health strategies are key to eliminating this neglected tropical disease.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Onchocerciasis, a neglected tropical disease, is transmitted by black flies breeding near rivers.
- Eradication efforts target 2030, focusing on disease transmission dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a deterministic mathematical model for human onchocerciasis infection dynamics.
- To incorporate control measures into the disease transmission model.
Main Methods:
- Derivation of the model's basic reproductive number (R0).
- Application of Metzler matrix stability theorems to analyze equilibrium states.
- Sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters influencing disease spread.
Main Results:
- Disease-free equilibrium is stable if R0 < 1.
- The endemic equation's form (cubic or quadratic) depends on infected immigrant inflow.
- Sensitivity analysis identified significant parameters driving onchocerciasis transmission.
Conclusions:
- Eradication of onchocerciasis is achievable through rigorous monitoring of infected immigrant importation.
- Integrating the One Health approach is vital for managing and preventing disease emergence and spread.
