Machine-learning classifier models for predicting sarcopenia in the elderly based on physical factors

As the size of the elderly population gradually increases, musculoskeletal disorders, such as sarcopenia, are increasing. Diagnostic techniques such as X-rays, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging are used to predict and diagnose sarcopenia, and methods using machine learning are gradually increasing. This study aimed to create a model that can predict sarcopenia using physical characteristics and activity-related variables without medical diagnostic equipment, such as imaging equipment, for the elderly aged 60 years or older.

A sarcopenia prediction model was constructed using public data obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Models were built using Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, LightGBM, RandomForest, and Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) algorithms, and the feature importance of the models trained with the algorithms, except for SVM and MLP, was analyzed.

The sarcopenia prediction model built with the LightGBM algorithm achieved the highest test accuracy, of 0.848. In constructing the LightGBM model, physical characteristic variables such as body mass index, weight, and waist circumference showed high importance, and activity-related variables were also used in constructing the model.

The sarcopenia prediction model, which consisted of only physical characteristics and activity-related factors, showed excellent performance. This model has the potential to assist in the early detection of sarcopenia in the elderly, especially in communities with limited access to medical resources or facilities. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 595-602.