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Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study
Patrícia Vasconcelos Leitão Moreira1, Adélia da Costa Pereira de Arruda Neta1, Flávia Emília Leite Lima Ferreira1
1Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
Frontiers in Public Health
|May 17, 2024
Summary
Type 2 diabetes prevalence in Brazil is projected to rise significantly. Reducing obesity could decrease diabetes rates, but public health impacts will remain substantial.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Health Modeling
Background:
- Type 2 diabetes is a growing public health concern in Brazil.
- Obesity and smoking are key risk factors contributing to diabetes prevalence.
- Understanding future trends is crucial for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the future prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.
- To estimate the impact of demographic changes, obesity, and smoking trends.
- To evaluate potential policy scenarios for mitigating diabetes impact.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model, a Markov approach.
- Integrated population, obesity, and smoking data from 2006 to 2020.
- Projected trends from 2006 to 2036 using data from IBGE and VIGITEL.
Main Results:
- Observed type 2 diabetes prevalence increased from 10.8% in 2006 to 13.7% in 2020.
- Forecasted prevalence to reach 27.0% by 2036 without interventions.
- A 1% annual obesity reduction could lower diabetes prevalence by 10.0%; a 5% reduction could decrease it by 19.4%.
Conclusions:
- Type 2 diabetes prevalence is set to increase dramatically in Brazil.
- Even with aggressive obesity reduction policies, the public health burden will remain significant.
- Proactive public health strategies are essential to manage the escalating diabetes crisis.
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