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Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change
Charlotte Mitchell1, Jamie Bolam1, Laura D Bertola2
1Biosciences University of Exeter Exeter UK.
Ecology and Evolution
|May 23, 2024
Summary
Global environmental changes threaten leopard subspecies, with African and Arabian leopards facing range loss. Conservation efforts must address protection gaps and human-wildlife conflict, while Persian leopards may expand their range.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Biology
- Ecology
- Climate Change Impact
Background:
- Large carnivores like leopards are vital for ecosystem health but face threats from global environmental changes.
- Leopards (Panthera pardus) are adaptable felids crucial to African and Asian ecosystems, yet their populations are declining.
- Understanding how climate and land-use changes affect leopard distribution is critical for effective conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict future range suitability for three western leopard subspecies under climate and land-use change.
- To identify conservation gaps and opportunities by overlapping predicted ranges with protected areas (PAs).
- To highlight the importance of intraspecific variation in vulnerability assessments for leopards.
Main Methods:
- Intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) were developed for African, Arabian, and Persian leopard subspecies.
- Future climate and land-use scenarios were used to project changes in suitable habitat.
- Predicted suitable ranges were analyzed in conjunction with existing protected area coverage.
Main Results:
- Leopard subspecies exhibit varying responses to environmental changes: African leopards may lose ~25%, Arabian ~14%, and Persian leopards may gain ~12% of suitable range.
- A significant portion of suitable leopard habitat, only 4%-16%, is currently protected, with this proportion projected to decrease.
- Protected areas are insufficient to cover future suitable ranges, necessitating community engagement and habitat restoration.
Conclusions:
- Intraspecific variation significantly influences leopard vulnerability to environmental changes, underscoring the need for subspecies-specific conservation strategies.
- Inadequate protected area coverage and ongoing persecution outside PAs pose major threats to leopard survival.
- Conservation opportunities include community-based conflict mitigation, habitat restoration, and leveraging rewilding initiatives for potential range expansion, particularly for Persian leopards in Europe.
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