Factors Associated With Loss to Follow-Up in Surgical Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) distorts results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Understanding trial characteristics that contribute to LTFU may enable investigators to anticipate the extent of LTFU and plan retention strategies. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate the extent of LTFU in surgical RCTs and evaluate associations between trial characteristics and LTFU.

MEDLINE, Embase, and PubMed Central were searched for surgical RCTs published between January 2002 and December 2021 in the 30 highest impact factor surgical journals. Two-hundred eligible RCTs were randomly selected. The pooled LTFU rate was estimated using random intercept Poisson regression. Associations between trial characteristics and LTFU were assessed using metaregression.

The 200 RCTs included 37,914 participants and 1307 LTFU events. The pooled LTFU rate was 3.10 participants per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.85-5.17). Trial characteristics associated with reduced LTFU were standard-of-care outcome assessments (rate ratio [RR] 0.17; 95% CI 0.06-0.48), surgery for transplantation (RR 0.08; 95% CI 0.01-0.43), and surgery for cancer (RR 0.10; 95% CI 0.02-0.53). Increased LTFU was associated with patient-reported outcomes (RR 14.21; 95% CI 4.82-41.91) and follow-up duration ≥ three months (odds ratio 10.09; 95% CI 4.79-21.28).

LTFU in surgical RCTs is uncommon. Participants may be at increased risk of LTFU in trials with outcomes assessed beyond the standard of care, surgical indications other than cancer or transplant, patient-reported outcomes, and longer follow-up. Investigators should consider the impact of design on LTFU and plan retention strategies accordingly.