Do time preferences predict diabetes outcomes? A combined survey and register-based study.

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Behavioral Economics
• Endocrinology

Background:

• Heterogeneity in health outcomes is a key area of research in health economics.
• Understanding factors influencing health outcomes in chronic conditions like type 1 diabetes (T1D) is crucial for effective management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate whether time preferences predict health outcomes in individuals with T1D on insulin pump therapy.
• To analyze the association between different discounting models (exponential, hyperbolic, quasi-hyperbolic) and diabetes-related health indicators.

Main Methods:

• Collected data on time preferences using a hypothetical matching task.
• Estimated aggregate and individual-level discounting parameters using three distinct discounting models.
• Regressed discounting parameters against health outcomes including glycemic control, kidney function, BMI, and hospital contacts.

Main Results:

• All three discounting models demonstrated comparable data fit.
• Higher discounting (impatience) robustly predicted worse health outcomes, excluding hospital contacts.
• Present bias was significantly associated with poorer kidney function.

Conclusions:

• Time preferences, particularly impatience and present bias, are significant predictors of health outcome heterogeneity in T1D.
• These findings underscore the importance of incorporating time preferences into the design of T1D management programs.
• Future research should explore interventions targeting time preferences to improve chronic disease management.