Statistics of Extreme Events in Integrable Turbulence

We use the spectral kinetic theory of soliton gas to investigate the likelihood of extreme events in integrable turbulence described by the one-dimensional focusing nonlinear Schrödinger equation (fNLSE). This is done by invoking a stochastic interpretation of the inverse scattering transform for fNLSE and analytically evaluating the kurtosis of the emerging random nonlinear wave field in terms of the spectral density of states of the corresponding soliton gas. We then apply the general result to two fundamental scenarios of the generation of integrable turbulence: (i) the asymptotic development of the spontaneous modulational instability of a plane wave, and (ii) the long-time evolution of strongly nonlinear, partially coherent waves. In both cases, involving the bound state soliton gas dynamics, the analytically obtained values of the kurtosis are in perfect agreement with those inferred from direct numerical simulations of the fNLSE, providing the long-awaited theoretical explanation of the respective rogue wave statistics. Additionally, the evolution of a particular nonbound state gas is considered, providing important insights related to the validity of the so-called virial theorem.