Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

Government responses to COVID-19 are among the most globally impactful events of the 21st century. The extent to which responses-such as school closures-were associated with changes in COVID-19 outcomes remains unsettled. Multiverse analyses offer a systematic approach to testing a large range of models. We used daily data on 16 government responses in 181 countries in 2020-2021, and 4 outcomes-cases, infections, COVID-19 deaths, and all-cause excess deaths-to construct 99,736 analytic models. Among those, 42% suggest outcomes improved following more stringent responses ("helpful"). No subanalysis (e.g. limited to cases as outcome) demonstrated a preponderance of helpful or unhelpful associations. Among the 14 associations with P values < 1 × 10^-30, 5 were helpful and 9 unhelpful. In summary, we find no patterns in the overall set of models that suggests a clear relationship between COVID-19 government responses and outcomes. Strong claims about government responses' impacts on COVID-19 may lack empirical support.