Model-Based Bioequivalence Analysis to Assess and Predict the Relative Bioavailability of Valproic Acid Formulations

Model-based bioequivalence (MBBE) encompasses the use of nonlinear mixed effect models supporting the estimation of pharmacokinetic endpoints to assess the relative bioavailability between multi-source drug products. This application emerges as a valuable alternative to the standard non-compartmental analysis (NCA) in bioequivalence (BE) studies in which dense sampling is not possible. In this work, we aimed to assess the application of MBBE compared to traditional methods in evaluating the relative bioavailability of two formulations with different drug release properties. Additionally, we sought to predict the performance of a modified-release formulation in a multiple-dose scenario, leveraging data from a single-dose study.

MBBE analysis was implemented to estimate the BE endpoints (90% CI for the Test/Reference geometric mean ratio, T/R GMR) in area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and maximum concentration (Cmax) using data from a single-dose, 2-period, 2-sequence BE study performed in 14 healthy subjects between a locally developed valproic acid extended-release formulation (Test) and the brand-name delayed-release formulation (Reference).

Results were compared with the standard approach, revealing that MBBE analysis achieved higher discrimination between formulations for Cmax, addressing limitations of the experimental sampling design and highlighting an advantage for this model-based analysis even when rich data are available. Additionally, the bioequivalence outcome under the multiple-dose scenario was predicted through a simulation-based study for both total and unbound valproic acid concentrations, considering the impact of valproic acid saturable binding on BE conclusions.

The MBBE analysis was superior to the NCA approach in detecting product-related differences, overcoming limitations in the study experimental design. Predictions for the multiple-dose scenario preclude that the extended-release properties of the Test formulation would persist at steady state, resulting in lower peak-to-trough fluctuation and bioequivalent performance in terms of the extent of drug absorption. Overall, these results should discourage unnecessary experimentation in healthy subjects.