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Potential impact of controlling opium use prevalence on future cancer incidence in Iran

Saeed Nemati1,2, Amir Reza Dardashti2, Elham Mohebbi3,4

  • 1Genomic Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC-WHO), Lyon, France.

Eclinicalmedicine
|June 17, 2024
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Reducing opium use in Iran could prevent thousands of cancer cases by 2035. A 50% decrease in opium prevalence may avert nearly 49,000 incident cancers, particularly lung, stomach, and bladder cancers.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Opium consumption is classified as carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
  • Iran accounts for a significant portion (42%) of global opium consumption.
  • Opium use is a considerable risk factor for several cancer types.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the potential reduction in incident cancers in Iran by 2035.
  • To quantify cancer prevention by decreasing opium use prevalence.
  • To assess the impact of reduced opium consumption on specific cancer sites.

Main Methods:

  • Population attributable fraction (PAF) was used to project opium-related cancers.
  • Data included national cancer incidence, age/gender-specific opium use, and relative cancer risks.
  • Calculations considered annual changes in cancer incidence rates and different prevalence reduction scenarios.

Main Results:

  • An estimated 3,001,421 new cancer cases are projected in Iran by 2035.
  • Opium-related cancers are expected to constitute 30.1% of all incident cases.
  • Reducing opium prevalence by 10%-50% could prevent 9,016-49,006 cancers, with significant impact on lung, stomach, and bladder cancers.

Conclusions:

  • Effective cancer prevention policies targeting opium use can yield substantial benefits in Iran.
  • Opium use represents a significant, preventable burden on future cancer incidence.
  • Public health interventions aimed at reducing opium consumption are crucial for cancer control.
Keywords:
AddictionBurdenCarcinogenOpioidPopulation attributable fraction

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