Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

Area of Science:

• Climatology
• Environmental Science
• East Asian Climate Studies

Background:

• The Meiyu-Baiu rainfall system has historically shaped East Asian natural resources, civilization, and culture for over a millennium.
• Recent decades show altered Meiyu-Baiu patterns, with increased rainstorms and droughts, raising questions about its traditional characteristics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively assess the changes in traditional Meiyu-Baiu rainfall features.
• To determine the attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic warming.
• To project the future likelihood of traditional Meiyu-Baiu events in a warming climate.

Main Methods:

• Quantitative analysis of Meiyu-Baiu rainfall data from 1961-2023.
• Climate modeling to attribute changes to anthropogenic warming.
• Future climate projections to assess the persistence of traditional Meiyu-Baiu.

Main Results:

• The study quantitatively demonstrates a near-complete loss of traditional Meiyu-Baiu features between 1961 and 2023.
• Approximately 80% of this loss is attributed to human-induced (anthropogenic) warming.
• Future climate scenarios indicate a significantly lower probability of traditional Meiyu-Baiu events.

Conclusions:

• The traditional characteristics of the Meiyu-Baiu rainfall system have been largely lost.
• Anthropogenic warming is the dominant factor driving these changes.
• Urgent adaptation strategies are needed to address the shift towards more destructive extreme weather events.