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Updated: Jun 23, 2025
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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
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Path-dependence of the Plio-Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles
Judit Carrillo1, Michael E Mann1, Christopher J Larson1
1Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Summary
Earth
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate Modeling
- Earth System Science
Background:
- The Plio-Pleistocene epoch experienced significant glacial cycles.
- Understanding the drivers of these glacial-interglacial cycles is crucial for climate science.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate path dependence and hysteresis in Plio-Pleistocene glaciations.
- To understand the role of carbon dioxide outgassing and regolith removal in glacial evolution.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model simulations.
- Ran simulations forward-in-time (FIT) from mid-Pliocene to preindustrial.
- Performed backward-in-time (BIT) simulations with time-reversed forcings.
Main Results:
- Strong path dependence observed in glacial evolution.
- Backward simulations (BIT) did not replicate late Pliocene ice-free conditions.
- The Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) was absent in BIT simulations under certain regolith removal treatments.
Conclusions:
- Nonlinearities and initial state dependence in the carbon cycle drive path dependence.
- Reproducing the MPT requires both depleted regolith and lowered atmospheric CO2.
- Hysteresis significantly influences glacial dynamics and climate transitions.
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