Can trade and security alliance help reduce interstate war?

Area of Science:

• International political economy
• International relations theory
• Conflict studies

Background:

• The gap between theory and empirical research impedes scientific progress in international political economy.
• Chen's Extended Dependence Theory offers an alternative to liberal peace theory but lacks empirical validation.
• Existing research on trade and peace often focuses on disputes short of war, neglecting severe conflict.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically test Chen's Extended Dependence Theory against the most severe form of conflict: war.
• To determine if Extended Dependence has a peace-building effect that prevents interstate war.
• To address the limitations of prior empirical analyses that focused on less intense militarized disputes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized statistical tests to analyze the relationship between Extended Dependence and the occurrence of war.
• Employed substantive significance testing to evaluate the practical impact of the Extended Dependence variable.
• Focused empirical validation on war as the most critical measure of conflict severity.

Main Results:

• No statistically significant peace-building effect was found for Extended Dependence in preventing war.
• The Extended Dependence variable demonstrated a ceiling effect, indicating limited explanatory power for war.
• Findings challenge the applicability of Extended Dependence Theory to understanding and preventing large-scale conflict.

Conclusions:

• Chen's Extended Dependence Theory does not appear to reduce the risk of war based on current empirical evidence.
• The interaction between economic ties and security institutions in mitigating severe conflict remains an open question.
• Future research should investigate why economic interdependence and security alliances do not collectively deter the most destructive forms of conflict.