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A Modelling Framework for Householder Decision-Making for Wildfire Emergencies.

Ruggiero Lovreglio1, Erica Kuligowski2, Steve Gwynne3

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Wildfire threats are increasing, necessitating better understanding of household risk perception and protective actions. This study introduces a mathematical framework to simulate wildfire decision-making for improved evacuation planning.

Keywords:
decision-makinghouseholderhuman behaviourmodellingwildfire

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Sociology
  • Computer Science

Background:

  • Wildfire threats have escalated globally, posing significant risks to communities worldwide.
  • Assessing and mitigating wildfire risk requires understanding both physical and social dynamics.
  • Existing research on household wildfire risk perception and decision-making is limited, with a gap in predictive behavioral models for simulation tools.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a mathematical framework for simulating household wildfire risk perception.
  • To model how householders make protective decisions and take actions during wildfire events.
  • To address the need for a behavioral model suitable for integration into simulation tools for wildfire evacuation.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a conceptual Wildfire Decision Model based on nine assumptions from existing literature on human behavior during wildfires.
  • Formulation of a mathematical framework to implement this conceptual model within a simulation environment.
  • Identification of information requirements for dynamic and behavioral travel demand models in wildfire evacuation scenarios.

Main Results:

  • A novel mathematical framework for simulating household wildfire risk perception and protective actions has been developed.
  • The framework integrates a conceptual Wildfire Decision Model grounded in established human behavior principles.
  • The study identifies key data needs for enhancing wildfire evacuation models.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed mathematical framework provides a foundation for simulating household responses to wildfire threats.
  • This modeling approach can significantly improve the accuracy and utility of wildfire evacuation planning tools.
  • Further development can lead to dynamic and behavioral travel demand models essential for effective wildfire risk management.