2024: anticipating record-breaking performances in front crawl swimming through mathematical analysis

Introduction: This study presented a novel approach to predict future front crawl swimming world records (WRs) by employing a methodology that integrated performance data from both running and front crawl swimming. Methods: By extracting the top one running and swimming performances from 1995 to 2023 and applying a model that correlates physiological characteristics such as maximum aerobic power, anaerobic capacity, the decrement in maximum power with prolonged effort, and performance speed and duration, it was possible to project the potential record-breaking performances in 2024 across various swimming distances for both male and female athletes. Furthermore, this approach was expected to be less susceptible to the influence of the full-body swimsuit era, which may have disrupted the typical trajectory of swimming performance progression. Results: The average relative error between the top one and estimated speeds in front crawl swimming (50-1,500 m, from 1995 to 2023, and for male and female) was 0.56% ± 0.17%. For male, WR in longer distances have been predicted with new WR in the 400 and 800 m. A more ambitious prediction was noted among female, with twice as many WR as among male illustrated by new WR in the 50, 200, 400 and 800 m. Discussion: This study illustrated that the utilization of a prediction model based on physiological parameters yielded plausible time estimates. Additionally, the research accentuated the ongoing trajectory of surpassing existing WR into 2024, illustrating the competitive zeal fueled by an emerging framework of exceptional swimmers.