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Temporally Dynamic, Cohort-Varying Value-Added Models.

Garritt L Page1, Ernesto San Martín2,3,4, David Torres Irribarra5

  • 1Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University, Provo, USA.

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|June 22, 2024
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces two dynamic methods for estimating school value-added, accounting for yearly performance changes. Incorporating temporal dependence improves school effectiveness estimation and monitoring over time.

Keywords:
School value persistenceTemporal dependenceValue-added models

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Area of Science:

  • Educational Measurement
  • Statistics
  • Econometrics

Background:

  • Estimating school value-added is crucial for assessing educational effectiveness.
  • Traditional models often overlook the year-to-year temporal dependence in student performance.
  • Understanding school effectiveness persistence requires dynamic estimation methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate methods for dynamically estimating school value-added over time.
  • To explicitly model and account for temporal dependence in school performance.
  • To assess the persistence of school effectiveness using dynamic value-added models.

Main Methods:

  • Proposed two novel methods for incorporating temporal dependence into value-added models.
  • Method 1: Modeled random school effects using an auto-regressive process.
  • Method 2: Modeled cohort performance based on the previous cohort's performance.

Main Results:

  • Simulations demonstrated that ignoring temporal dependence reduces estimation efficiency.
  • Incorporating temporal dependence significantly improves value-added estimation accuracy.
  • Each proposed model offers distinct insights into monitoring specific aspects of school persistence.

Conclusions:

  • Dynamic estimation of school value-added is essential for accurate effectiveness assessment.
  • Accounting for temporal dependence enhances the reliability and efficiency of value-added indicators.
  • The proposed methodologies provide robust tools for evaluating school performance trends over time.