Exact Analysis of the Subthreshold Variability for Conductance-Based Neuronal Models with Synchronous Synaptic Inputs

The spiking activity of neocortical neurons exhibits a striking level of variability, even when these networks are driven by identical stimuli. The approximately Poisson firing of neurons has led to the hypothesis that these neural networks operate in the asynchronous state. In the asynchronous state, neurons fire independently from one another, so that the probability that a neuron experience synchronous synaptic inputs is exceedingly low. While the models of asynchronous neurons lead to observed spiking variability, it is not clear whether the asynchronous state can also account for the level of subthreshold membrane potential variability. We propose a new analytical framework to rigorously quantify the subthreshold variability of a single conductance-based neuron in response to synaptic inputs with prescribed degrees of synchrony. Technically, we leverage the theory of exchangeability to model input synchrony via jump-process-based synaptic drives; we then perform a moment analysis of the stationary response of a neuronal model with all-or-none conductances that neglects postspiking reset. As a result, we produce exact, interpretable closed forms for the first two stationary moments of the membrane voltage, with explicit dependence on the input synaptic numbers, strengths, and synchrony. For biophysically relevant parameters, we find that the asynchronous regime yields realistic subthreshold variability (voltage variance ≃4-9 mV²) only when driven by a restricted number of large synapses, compatible with strong thalamic drive. By contrast, we find that achieving realistic subthreshold variability with dense cortico-cortical inputs requires including weak but nonzero input synchrony, consistent with measured pairwise spiking correlations. We also show that, without synchrony, the neural variability averages out to zero for all scaling limits with vanishing synaptic weights, independent of any balanced state hypothesis. This result challenges the theoretical basis for mean-field theories of the asynchronous state.