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Safeguarding China's long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors
Ke Li1, Lei Gao2, Zhaoxia Guo1
1Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.
Nature Communications
|June 24, 2024
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Socioeconomics
- Sustainability science
Background:
- China's long-term sustainability is threatened by socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties.
- Five key systemic risk drivers (disruptors) identified: pandemic disease, population aging/shrinking, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the impact of these disruptors on China's long-term sustainability, measured by the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- To assess the potential effectiveness of policy interventions in mitigating these risks.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an integrated simulation model to analyze the effects of five disruptors on China's SDG score.
- Projected impacts under different scenarios, including baseline, disruptors only, and policy interventions.
Main Results:
- Population aging/shrinking and climate change identified as the most influential disruptors.
- Compound effects of all disruptors could decrease China's SDG score by 2.1 (2030) and 7.0 (2050) points without policy action.
- Integrated policies show potential to enhance resilience and improve sustainability outcomes.
Conclusions:
- China faces significant sustainability challenges from identified systemic risks.
- Proactive, integrated policy interventions are crucial for building resilience and achieving Sustainable Development Goals.
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