Significant Factors for Modelling Survival of Escherichia coli in Lake Sediments

Currently available numerical models that describe the fecal contamination of aquatic environments using Escherichia coli as an indicator bacterium did not consider its survival in sediments. We conducted a series of comparative experiments to reveal the independent and interactive effects of sediment factors, including temperature, pH, water-extractable total dissolved solids (TDSs), coexisting microbes, and sampling sites, in lake environments on E. coli survival. In experiments, E. coli survival was observed by controlling any two factors at a time. Consequently, the decrease in pH and presence of coexisting microbes enhanced E. coli die-off, whereas the addition of water-extractable TDSs promoted its growth. To select factors to be considered for modelling E. coli survival in sediments, the independent effects of each factor and the interaction effect of the two factors were statistically compared based on their effect sizes (η²). As a result, pH (η² = 59.5-89.0%) affected E. coli survival most significantly, followed by coexisting microbes (1.7-48.4%). Among the interactions affecting E. coli survival, including pH or coexisting microbes-which had larger independent effects-relatively larger statistically significant interactions were observed between pH and coexisting microbes (31.1%), coexisting microbes and water-extractable TDSs (85.4%), and coexisting microbes and temperature (26.4%).