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Future Possible Changes in Medically Underserved Areas in Japan: A Geographic Information System-Based Simulation
Akihisa Nakamura1, Eiji Satoh2, Tatsuya Suzuki3
1Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University, Shimotsuke City 329-0498, Japan; m06066an@jichi.ac.jp.
Journal of Market Access & Health Policy
|June 27, 2024
Summary
Japan
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Healthcare Policy
- Geographic Information Systems
Background:
- Depopulation trends impact healthcare access, especially in medically underserved areas (MUAs).
- Japan faces increasing prevalence of depopulation in rural regions.
- Understanding future MUA dynamics is crucial for healthcare planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate future population and land area changes in Japanese MUAs.
- To project MUA evolution from 2020 to 2050.
- To inform rural healthcare policy adjustments.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 1 km mesh data, clinic, and hospital locations across Japan (2020).
- Defined MUAs as areas outside a 4 km radius of medical institutions.
- Employed GIS analysis to predict MUA population and land area changes every 10 years until 2050.
- Modeled medical institution closures if surrounding population fell below 1000.
Main Results:
- MUA population projected to decrease from 964,310 (0.77%) in 2020 to 763,410 (0.75%) by 2050.
- MUA land area predicted to increase, with 13% of Japan's meshes becoming new MUAs by 2050 (31% increase).
- Approximately 1601 medical institutions may face closure due to proximity to depopulated areas.
Conclusions:
- Japanese MUAs will experience population decline but land area expansion.
- These demographic shifts necessitate reforms in rural healthcare policy and systems.
- Proactive planning is essential to maintain healthcare access in evolving MUAs.
Keywords:
accessibilitygeographic information systemhealthcare policyinstitutional closurerural healthMore Related Videos
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