How does urbanization impact China's carbon emissions: A regional heterogeneity perspective

In the context of China's green development and "dual carbon" goal, urbanization, as a way to achieve Chinese modernization, has a particularly important effect on green and low-carbon economic development. Firstly, this paper empirically analyzed the influence of urbanization on per capita carbon emissions using Chinese city data and a panel fixed-effects model. Then, the impact mechanisms of urbanization on carbon emissions were examined from both the demand and supply sides. Finally, we analyzed the differences in the transmission mechanisms of urbanization affecting carbon emissions in the eastern, central, and western regions. The results show that (1) urbanization increases per capita carbon emissions. However, this effect shows inter-regional differences, with more significant promotion effects in the eastern and central regions; (2) on the demand side, the residents' consumption intensity can drive carbon emissions, while the rise of human capital agglomeration suppresses carbon emissions; on the supply side, industrial structure can drive carbon emissions, while the increase of green technological innovation suppresses carbon emissions; (3) the consumption effect and the industry effect play a major role in the eastern and central regions, while the intermediary effect is not obvious in the western region. This study can provide important insights for synergizing urbanization and achieving carbon reduction commitments.