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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
[Application of 21-gene recurrence risk score in patients with breast cancer]
1Department of Pathology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310003, China.
Abstract:
Objective: To investigate the relationship between 21-gene recurrence risk score (21-Gene RS) and the prognosis and clinicopathological features of hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer patients who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. Methods: A total of 469 patients with HR positive and HER2-negative early breast cancer who received surgical treatment in the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine from January 2014 to October 2017 were selected. Their clinicopathological data were retrospectively analyzed. Tumor tissue samples were collected from patients, and the expression of 21-gene was detected by reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The 21-Gene RS was calculated according to the Trial Assigning Individualized Options for Treatment (TAILORx) RS grouping and National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-20 (NSABP B-20) RS grouping principles. Patients were divided into low (21-Gene RS<11 or 21-Gene RS<18), intermediate (11≤21-Gene RS<26 or 18≤21-Gene RS<31) and high (21-Gene RS≥26 or 21-Gene RS≥31) risk groups, and the clinicopathological features and prognostic differences of patients in different risk groups were compared. Statistical data were compared by chi-square test. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and the differences between groups were compared using Log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was conducted by COX regression analysis. Results: Based on TAILORx RS grouping, the proportions of low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups among the 469 patients were 18.8% (88/469), 48.2% (226/469) and 33.0% (155/469), respectively. Based on NSABP B-20 RS grouping, the proportion of low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk groups were 43.1% (202/469), 37.5% (176/469) and 19.4% (91/469), respectively. The association of 21-Gene RS with histological grading, luminal typing, Ki-67 expression, and chemotherapy and treatment modalities were statistically significant (P<0.05) regardless of TAILORx RS grouping or NSABP B-20 RS grouping. Kaplan-Meier survival curve suggested poor prognosis in high-risk group (P<0.05, Log-rank test). Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that surgical method and 21-Gene RS were risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients. Conclusions: 21-Gene RS is significantly associated with the prognosis of patients with HR-positive, HER2-negative, early-stage breast cancer not receiving neoadjuvant therapy, as well as with their clinicopathological characteristics such as patients' histologic grade, luminal typing, Ki-67 expression, and whether or not they are treated with chemotherapy or other treatment modalities.The 21-Gene RS threshold of 11 and 26 or 18 and 31 can be used to grade the prognosis in Chinese patients with early-stage breast cancer. More researches are needed to guide the selection of postoperative adjuvant therapy for patients with HR-positive and HER2-negative early-stage breast cancer.
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