Development and validation of a predictive model for vertebral fracture risk in osteoporosis patients

This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVFs) risk by integrating demographic, bone mineral density (BMD), CT imaging, and deep learning radiomics features from CT images.

A total of 169 osteoporosis-diagnosed patients from three hospitals were randomly split into OVFs (n = 77) and Non-OVFs (n = 92) groups for training (n = 135) and test (n = 34). Demographic data, BMD, and CT imaging details were collected. Deep transfer learning (DTL) using ResNet-50 and radiomics features were fused, with the best model chosen via logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards models identified clinical factors. Three models were constructed: clinical, radiomics-DTL, and fusion (clinical-radiomics-DTL). Performance was assessed using AUC, C-index, Kaplan-Meier, and calibration curves. The best model was depicted as a nomogram, and clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

BMD, CT values of paravertebral muscles (PVM), and paravertebral muscles' cross-sectional area (CSA) significantly differed between OVFs and Non-OVFs groups (P < 0.05). No significant differences were found between training and test cohort. Multivariate Cox models identified BMD, CT values of PVM, and CSA_PS reduction as independent OVFs risk factors (P < 0.05). The fusion model exhibited the highest predictive performance (C-index: 0.839 in training, 0.795 in test). DCA confirmed the nomogram's utility in OVFs risk prediction.

This study presents a robust predictive model for OVFs risk, integrating BMD, CT data, and radiomics-DTL features, offering high sensitivity and specificity. The model's visualizations can inform OVFs prevention and treatment strategies.