Balancing aquaculture and estuarine ecosystems: machine learning-based water quality indices for effective management

This study delves into the environmental impact of inland aquaculture on estuarine ecosystems by examining the water quality of four estuarine streams within the key inland aquaculture zone of South India. In this region, extensive and intensive aquaculture practices are common, posing potential challenges to estuarine health. The research explores the predictive capabilities of the Gaussian elimination method (GEM) and machine learning techniques, specifically multi-linear regression (MLR) and support vector regressor (SVR), in forecasting the water quality index of these streams. Through comprehensive evaluation using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination (R²) and average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), MLR and SVR demonstrate higher prediction efficiency. Notably, employing key water parameters as inputs in machine learning models is also more effective. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) emerges as a critical water parameter, identified by both MLR and SVR, exhibiting high specificity in predicting water quality. This suggests that MLR and SVR, incorporating key water parameters, should be prioritized for future water quality monitoring in intensive aquaculture zones, facilitating timely warnings and interventions to safeguard water quality.