Deep learning prediction of survival in patients with heart failure using chest radiographs

Heart failure (HF) is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The value of deep learning survival prediction models using chest radiographs in patients with heart failure is currently unclear. The aim of our study is to develop and validate a deep learning survival prediction model using chest X-ray (DLSPCXR) in patients with HF. The study retrospectively enrolled a cohort of 353 patients with HF who underwent chest X-ray (CXR) at our institution between March 2012 and March 2017. The dataset was randomly divided into training (n = 247) and validation (n = 106) datasets. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were conducted on the training dataset to develop clinical and imaging survival prediction models. The DLSPCXR was trained and the selected clinical parameters were incorporated into DLSPCXR to establish a new model called DLSPinteg. Discrimination performance was evaluated using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (TD AUC) at 1, 3, and 5-years survival. Delong's test was employed for the comparison of differences between two AUCs of different models. The risk-discrimination capability of the optimal model was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier curve. In multivariable Cox analysis, older age, higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP), systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) > 50 mmHg, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class III-IV and cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) ≥ 0.62 in CXR were independent predictors of poor prognosis in patients with HF. Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, DLSPCXR had better performance at predicting 5-year survival than the imaging Cox model in the validation cohort (AUC: 0.757 vs. 0.561, P = 0.01). DLSPinteg as the optimal model outperforms the clinical Cox model (AUC: 0.826 vs. 0.633, P = 0.03), imaging Cox model (AUC: 0.826 vs. 0.555, P < 0.001), and DLSPCXR (AUC: 0.826 vs. 0.767, P = 0.06). Deep learning models using chest radiographs can predict survival in patients with heart failure with acceptable accuracy.